宏观经济视野下总量性失业探究

失业是市场经济国家不可回避的问题,也是一种正常的经济现象,是市场经济不可或缺的必要组成部分。但是,失业给社会特别是失业者带来巨大的损失,包括物质层面和精神层面。在我国的各种类型的失业中,总量性失业是主要的组成部分。本文从总量性失业的现状、具体测算、经济学分析、治理对策等角度对这个关键性问题进行了探讨。     

Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set

We propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans–Lyons microstructure approach. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or “hybrid,” model exhibits greater in‐sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis‐à‐vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.     

上、下山开采的合理顺序与开采方式

本文以两个煤矿为例,探讨了上下山开采的合理顺序与上下山相结合的开采方式。     

我国蛋鸡养殖适度规模研究*——基于5省实地调研数据

［目的］我国是世界蛋鸡养殖主要国家之一，目前蛋鸡产业发展仍然呈现“小规模、大群体”局面，蛋鸡规模化发展受限。研究蛋鸡养殖户要素投入及适度规模，对于指导中小养殖户合理决策及宏观上把握蛋鸡养殖规模发展趋势有重要意义。［方法］利用5省实地调研数据，基于农户收益最大化构建最优规划模型，测算我国蛋鸡养殖适度规模。［结果］按照蛋鸡养殖劳动力投入测算的蛋鸡养殖适度存栏量平均值为2430 4万只； 按照资本投入量测算的适度存栏量平均值为2617 1万只； 按照现有养殖面积测算的蛋鸡养殖适度规模平均值为4698 1万只； 调研户实际平均存栏量为2033 8万只。［结论］按照目前农户养殖的劳动力、资本及养殖面积计算，农户养殖适度规模均大于现有养殖规模，在目前的生产要素投入下，养殖户养殖规模还有较大扩展空间； 养殖户在现有生产条件下，应该更多注重劳动力及资本投入，即养殖户扩大生产规模的关键在于如何使用机械化设备代替人工以及如何获得更多资金。同时，1万～5万只蛋鸡存栏户将占据蛋鸡养殖主要市场，蛋鸡养殖规模化发展大势所趋，1万只以下存栏的中小养殖户由于资金、技术等限制将逐步退出。     

家庭劳动力约束下经营规模对农户种植结构选择的影响

研究目的：剖析不同农地经营规模下农户种植行为选择，分析经营规模与种植结构的关系。研究方法：门槛效 应模型。研究结果：经营规模扩大对种植结构的影响是非线性的，其过程会受到家庭劳动力禀赋的制约，即存在门槛 效应，当家庭劳均经营规模小于门槛规模时，经营规模扩大会促进农户种植经济作物，导致种植结构变化呈“去粮化”， 反之当家庭劳均经营规模超过门槛规模时，经营规模扩大会促进种植结构“趋粮化”。研究结论：规模经营不必然引发 非粮化生产，因而可以进一步发展农业适度规模经营，通过完善农业社会化服务缓解农业生产的家庭劳动力约束，并 以多种方式提高种粮收益以稳定粮食生产，保障国家粮食安全。     

Ceremonious politeness in consuming food in VFR tourism: scale development

Understanding the desire for visiting friends and relatives (VFR) has been examined in previous studies. Yet, research on the antecedences and consequences of social interaction between host and guest in VFR tourism has not received enough attention. Addressing this gap, this study introduces ceremonious politeness (CP) by tourists in consuming food as a cultural code that facilitates the establishment of a communally arranged form of social interaction. Using a mixed methods scale-development approach (e.g. Delphi technique, qualitative interviews, and surveys) during 14 months in 2015–2016, it develops and validates a CP scale to measure the impact of self-accountability and perceived others’ control on tourists’ sense of self-blame in social interaction situation related to consuming food in VFR tourism. The study contributes to the body of knowledge by introducing the concept of CP in a non-commercial setting.     

“First in first out” or “last in first out”: Presentation of information order on evaluation of utilitarian products

This study investigates how the presentation order of information may affect the evaluation of utilitarian products. Three experiments with different conditions (hedonic/utilitarian product; experience/search advertisement; unattractive/attractive packaging) were conducted with a total of 334 participants in Macau. This study tests both the affective and cognitive product evaluation. The findings indicate that assimilation effect occurs if the search advertisement of a utilitarian product is presented before and if the consumers have better cognitive evaluation. When an experience advertisement is presented before, contrast effect occurs and affective evaluation is reduced. However, when unattractive packaging is presented before, assimilation effect occurs, and cognitive evaluation is increased. When attractive packaging is presented before, the consumers demonstrate a positive cognitive and affective evaluation for the utilitarian product. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the role of presentation order on the consumers’ evaluation of utilitarian products from theoretical and managerial perspectives.     

Spatial assessment of climate change vulnerability at city scale: A study in Bangalore,India

Integrating adaptation and mitigation response actions to climate change in urban-level policies requires comprehensive information on vulnerability patterns, yet a majority of local governments and decision makers in various cities in developing nations lack spatially explicit information on climate change vulnerability and its key drivers. In addition, there is no standardised method for an all-inclusive vulnerability assessment at the local level. Results from higher broad-scale vulnerability assessments are difficult to implement conceptually and technically at the local scale. We present a climate change vulnerability assessment approach at the city scale that considers three main components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Indicators were assessed within each component and were combined using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE). The standardisation of indicators under each component was conducted, along with weighting, at each level of the vulnerability assessment hierarchy. The vulnerability assessment approach was applied to an urban area in India; namely, Bangalore metropolitan area. The application of vulnerability assessment approach was demonstrated and a spatial assessment of climate change vulnerability patterns was presented. The spatial pattern of vulnerability identifies areas urgently requiring attention to adaptation action, while vulnerability assessment enables policy intervention and prioritization at local spatial scales. This study presents a rational to integrate vulnerability assessment approach within the urban planning realm in Bangalore metropolitan area where according to our study approximately 91% of the area is facing high degree of climate vulnerability.     

A multidimensional scale of activity attachment for leisure tourists

Although the concept of activity attachment has been studied previously, the existing scales of activity attachment used only a single dimension or did not embody the discussion on behavioral domain. Furthermore, no previous studies have followed rigorous scale development procedures to explore the nature of activity attachment. In an effort to address this gap, this study aims to develop and validate a multidimensional scale of activity attachment for leisure tourists based on attachment theory. First, initial questionnaire items were generated from literature reviews and expert discussions. Second, exploratory factor analysis was conducted and four underlying dimensions were identified: emotion-symbol attachment, functional attachment, word-of-mouth intention attachment, and actual behavior attachment. Third, confirmatory factor analysis was employed and the result showed that the multidimensional activity attachment scale with four dimensions and 18 items has good fit, reliability, and validity. Implications of these findings for practical applications and future research are also provided.     

“订单班”式酒店管理职业人才培养模式的实践与探索

酒店管理"订单班"人才培养模式是高等教育适应市场对高技能型人才需求而发展起来的人才培养模式。订单培养模式是校企合作的最佳途径,校企双方根据岗位需要,共同制订培养方案与教学计划,使学生获得更多的实践机会,树立正确的职业观和就业观,接受职业化培训,加快成长的速度和步伐,提高学生的专业技能和职业发展能力。